Adopting probabilistic thinking and language that is powered by evidence and its validity is a hard transition from everyday life for anyone. There are many possible obstacles.

The fundamentals – causality, randomness, probability – are not very intuitive or easy to understand or communicate clearly to anyone. Just tell me “yes”, “no” or “I don’t know”, ok?

Numbers are hard to remember and some patients may be reluctant to think about them but we want to practice informed and shared decision making as far and precisely as possible. “It may help”. What “help” means and like “0.001% maybe” or “78% maybe”? The common categorizations like “high risk” and “low risk” are easier but relative and imprecise (sometimes practical enough, maybe).

Many different actions in life and health care will likely change risks of many different outcomes at the same time so the possible net changes become the real deal and this brings in a lot of complexity. But having solid understanding of risk is clearly important in any practice that wishes to improve themselves by reflecting on reality.

Indeed, psychology seems to show that people are far from “rational” decision-makers when using probability and choosing how to proceed under uncertainty.

Click here to read Eero's full blog on Students 4 Best Evidence.